TED婕旇(瑙嗛+MP3+鍙岃瀛楀箷):涓轰粈涔堟櫤鑳界粺璁℃暟鎹槸鎵撳嚮鐘姜鐨勫叧閿?6)
鏃ユ湡:2019-06-10 09:48

(鍗曡瘝缈昏瘧:鍗曞嚮)

鍚姏鏂囨湰

The reason for this is the way we make decisions.
鏄垜浠仛鍐冲畾鐨勬柟寮忓鑷寸殑杩欑缁撴灉銆?br />Judges have the best intentions when they make these decisions about risk, but they're making them subjectively.
娉曞畼鎬€鐫€鍠勬剰鍋氬嚭杩欎簺鏈夐闄╃殑鍐冲畾锛屼絾锛屾槸涓昏鐨勫喅瀹氥€?br />They're like the baseball scouts 20 years ago who were using their instinct and their experience to try to decide what risk someone poses.
浠栦滑灏卞儚20骞村墠鐨勬鐞冧睛鏌ュ憳锛屼粬浠嚟鏈兘鍜岀粡楠岃瘯鐫€鍘诲垽鏂煇涓汉鍒堕€犵殑鍗遍櫓銆?br />They're being subjective, and we know what happens with subjective decision making, which is that we are often wrong.
浠栦滑鏄富瑙傜殑锛屾垜浠煡閬撲富瑙傚喅绛栦細瀵艰嚧浠€涔堬紝閭e氨鏄垜浠父甯哥姱閿欍€?br />What we need in this space are strong data and analytics.
鎴戜滑闇€瑕佺殑鏄湁鍔涚殑鏁版嵁鍜屽垎鏋愩€?/p>

涓轰粈涔堟櫤鑳界粺璁℃暟鎹槸鎵撳嚮鐘姜鐨勫叧閿? /><br /></p><p>What I decided to look for was a strong data and analytic risk assessment tool,<br />鎴戝喅瀹氬鎵句竴涓湁鍔涚殑鏁版嵁鍒嗘瀽鐨勯闄╄瘎浼板伐鍏凤紝<br />something that would let judges actually understand with a scientific and objective way what the risk was that was posed by someone in front of them.<br />杩欎釜宸ュ叿浼氳娉曞畼浠ョ瀛︾殑瀹㈣鐨勬柟寮忓幓浜嗚В浠€涔堟牱鐨勯闄╂憜鍦ㄤ粬浠潰鍓嶃€?br />I looked all over the country, and I found that between five and 10 percent of all U.S. jurisdictions actually use any type of risk assessment tool,<br />鎴戞壘閬嶄簡鍏ㄥ浗锛屽彂鐜?%鑷?0%鐨勭編鍥界杈栧尯鍩熷疄闄呬娇鐢ㄤ簡鏌愪簺绫诲瀷鐨勯闄╄瘎浼板伐鍏凤紝<br />and when I looked at these tools, I quickly realized why.<br />鎴戞煡鐪嬩簡杩欎簺璇勪及宸ュ叿涔嬪悗锛屽緢蹇剰璇嗗埌鍏朵腑缂樼敱銆?br />They were unbelievably expensive to administer, they were time-consuming,<br />瀹冧滑搴旂敤璧锋潵闈炲父鏄傝吹锛岄潪甯歌€楁椂锛?br />they were limited to the local jurisdiction in which they'd been created.<br />瀹冧滑琚檺鍒跺湪鍦版柟绠¤緰鍖哄煙锛屽洜涓哄畠浠氨鍑鸿嚜閭i噷銆?br />So basically, they couldn't be scaled or transferred to other places.<br />鍥犳锛屽熀鏈笂锛屽畠浠笉鑳芥墿灞曟垨杞Щ鍒板叾浠栧湴鏂广€?br /></p><p>婕旇浠嬬粛<br /></p><p>褰撳畨濡背灏旀牸鎷夊2007骞村嚭浠绘柊娉借タ宸炵殑鍙告硶閮ㄩ暱涔嬫椂锛屽緢蹇究鍙戠幇浜嗘煇浜涙儕浜虹殑浜嬪疄锛氬ス鐨勫洟闃熶笉浠呭韫茬洃鐙辩殑浜轰笉鐢氫簡瑙o紝鑰屼笖涔熸棤娉曠‘瀹氫粬浠墍浣滅殑鍒ゅ喅鏄惁鐪熸鍔犲己浜嗗叕浼楀畨鍏ㄣ€傚洜姝わ紝濂瑰睍寮€浜嗕竴娆¢紦鑸炰汉蹇冪殑鎺㈢储锛屽嵆灏嗘暟鎹垎鏋愪笌缁熻鍒嗘瀽搴旂敤鍒扮編鍥藉垜浜嬪徃娉曚綋绯诲綋涓€?br /></p><p><embed type=